The definition of torpor is either one of inactivity, or one of hibernation. As the summer finally hits the UK as well as much of Europe, the heat makes most people slow down. However the main cause of torpor in Europe is not the summer, or the heat. It is simply waiting for the German general election.
This week, the Portugal is patching up another coalition to stagger on with austerity, rumours are rapidly spreading concerning Spain’s leaders. Economic news from Spain says that it posted its first trade surplus in 40 years, might be thought initially as good news, but really puts the spotlight on the fact that imports dropped greatly, reflecting in the general depression in Spain.
Yet everything in Europe is on hold, and on hold for the German election, as bad European news is ” verboten” until September.
And yet time is not on the side of the Eurozone, with the Fed already clearly signalling that rates will rise, this will naturally put pressure on the euro. The will only exacerbate the problems in the Eurozone. Action is required now, and yet nothing moves. Politicians go on holiday, and the torpor continues.
Once the German elections are over, perhaps matters will be dealt with, for I am sure some cannot be left too long. Inflation is not the enemy but deflation. The key word we will hear from both Brussels and Berlin after September will be growth, and that won’t come a moment too soon.
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According to the FT on the 23/07/13, they seem to agree that summer torpor is here until the Germany election. ” The only certainty is that no answer will come before September 22.” Yet again, be ahead of the game, read the oaklease blog.