The papers are full of the news that the UK has been downgraded by one notch to AA1 by the rating agency Moody’s.
Whilst that will prove to be a temporary blip, and will cause some angst the real story goes gliding slowly by, undetected.
The key is still the eurozone. Let us take or step at a time. France, one of the cornerstones of Europe had stated that GDP debt would hit 3% . This week they announce that can we forget that target, and move it to 3.7%, and we might hit that target next year. The key word is might! Have no doubts that the French economy is in far worse place than the UK.
Let’s take another step. If I had said that a comic would hold the balance of power in Italy, you would say, nothing new there, but this is a newcomer, a real comedian. Last weekends Italian election Could prove to be. crucial. for the eurozone.
With Signor Monti , installed by Brussels, not the Itallian people, and ( the EU,s chosen autocrat) coming a poor fourth, will austerity be given the elbow. Perhaps it is time that Brussels realises that the EU based on people, and if you ignore them, chastise them, dictate to them, there will come a. time when they will say enough is enough. It was noticeable that the German president made similar comments this week. I wonder if the Eurocrats will come up with some unusual moves, something original, even gangnam style!
So where does that leave us, the pound is down, the euro is up, but we all know that this could well change over the next two to three months. For once Germany is on the side lines, as play continues on the pitch. If Italy move away from austerity, and France just stagnates, where will the euro go? Perhaps after the German election, Brussels will be taught German discipline. For without it, I fear the eurozone will be under great downward pressure.
But with all good comedy, the punch line comes at the end, is a low euro the key for growth in the eurozone. And as Jeremy Clarkson would say, and on that bombshell , goodnight or should that be guten nacht.
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